The Possibility of a New Military Confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Assessment of Risks and Threats in the Short Term

The armed forces of Armenia are still in a state of great turbulence after their heavy defeat in the Second Karabakh War (2020) against Azerbaijan. The military personnel of Armenia, as well as the whole nation, have experienced a deep psychological trauma, the consequences of which are unlikely to be overcome in the coming years. The purpose of the article is to identify the maximum limit of the capabilities of the Government of Armenia to restore and strengthen the defence potential of its armed forces in the short term. To that end, this article identifies the entire range of threats and risks that might stem from Armenia. In this context, the units of the Armenian army in certain areas of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, which is under the temporary control of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, are also considered part of the armed forces of Armenia.

Authors: Agil Rustamzade